New Host

I have a new host for the blog. The URL is: http://johnbuntingsjournal.com

There will be some time before I am familiar with the workings of Wordpress, but, that's life.

I will post something later today.

Pass the word and let me know what you think.

AWOL

Google blogger was down for some time.

I will be changing host soon.

Money Talks

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The stock market fell. Oil fell. Corn, wheat, soybean futures fell. The dollar is up. Is there a pattern?

No surprise that butter futures fell, the limit, a nickel. No surprise that Class III milk futures fell. But, look above at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) "Commitment of Traders" report. Look at how few players participate. Then ask why "non-commercial" players should even be there.

Don't worry though. These are really smart people who know more than the mere mortal.

Dean Defies Predictions

Some insiders felt Dean would fall very short on first quarter earning. Instead, they pulled a rabbit out of the hat:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/dean-foods-reports-first-quarter-2011-results-121555323.html

In the first half hour of trading today Dean shares were up over 14%. At the closing bell Dean shares were up 11.48%.

Oddly enough, Dean saw sales volume for fluid drop and the Class I mover rise dramatically when compared with the first quarter of 2010. Greg Engles said on the conference call he expected farm milk price to remain steady for the rest of the year. But, what does he know?

As Yogi Berra once said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

Crop Progress

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Today, May 9, 2011 USDA's "Crop Progress" report was released. The full report is at: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-05-09-2011.pdf


The two snips above show planting is progressing. However, the amount emerged is way behind average. The temperature has not been conducive to corn within the corn growing states. Additionally, there are reports of 900,000 acres under water.

Just what this will all mean when the harvest season comes is anyone's guess. A study on various prediction models (not for the corn crop) indicates people are not very good. So, what will come of dairy ration price is yet to be known.

Weather

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Although much of the focus of the news is on the Mississippi flooding there are still vast areas of the country experiencing drought (see above).

An interesting news story focuses on the extreme effects of La NinaL

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110508/ap_on_re_us/us_la_nina_s_extremes

The winter and early spring have been extreme across the West, with record snowpacks bringing joy to skiers and urban water managers but severe flood risks to northern Utah, Wyoming and Montana.

And despite all the wet weather in the Rockies and Sierra Nevada, parts of eastern Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona are in severe drought and gearing up for what is forecast as a bad fire season. In New Mexico, some 400 fires, driven by relentless winds, have already raced across 315,000 acres.

Credit — or blame — for the extreme weather goes mostly to a strong La Nina, which is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and an atmospheric flow that's causing drier than normal conditions in the Southwest and wetter than normal in the Northwest..

More at link.

Tornado Victims

I learned today of one dairy farmer in Alabama who just got his power back on ten days after the tornado.

A couple days ago I received this:

FYI:



Federation of Southern Cooperatives is taking donations to help the Alabama tornado victims.

Requested Items

* towels
* tooth paste
* canned foods
* can openers
* cooking utensils
* cleaning supplies
* socks
* washing powder
* soap
* underwear
* water
* toiletries
* bathroom tissue
* clothing
* cash donations are accepted (all donations are tax-deductable)
o Make all checks payable to the Federation of Southern Cooperatives

Please send all item donations via UPS to:

Debra Eatman
575 Federation Rd
Gainsville, Ala 35464

Commodities Drop Again

Big money is running, looking for safe places. The U.S. dollar seems to be that place, which results, since commodities are denominated in dollars, in falling oil, corn and other commodities.

Yesterday a new study came out: http://www.economist.com/node/18648350?story_id=18648350

The study seems to explain, to some extent, the fall globally, in crop yields. However,we seemed to have missed, so far, negative impacts. The article concludes:

That might be keenly felt if patterns of warming shift. One of the reasons that the climate effects Dr Lobell and his colleagues have dug out of the data are not worse is that, although the planet as a whole has warmed up during the past 30 years, growing seasons in the parts of America which produce 40% of the world’s maize and soyabeans have failed to follow suit. No one is quite sure why this might be and no one knows if it will last. That climate change has not yet done very much harm may be cheering, but the past offers no firm guarantees for the future.

Commodities fall

Commodities fell today. Oil fell, corn fell. It is too wet to plow and corn futures fell. So much for supply and demand and hooray for the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 which allow big money to hedge things like corn against speculating on the dollar.

Needless to say the dollar took off in an upward flight.

What all this will mean to dairy farmers is too soon to tell. But,all bets are off.

Dean Settlement Approved

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20110505/NEWS01/110505016/Burlington-judge-grants-preliminary-approval-revised-Dean-Foods-settlement?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|s

U.S. District Court Judge Christina Reiss granted preliminary approval Wednesday to a revised Dean Foods settlement in the class action lawsuit being brought on behalf of Northeast dairy farmers, clearing the way for the plaintiffs to begin notifying farmers of the $30 million payment Dean has agreed to make to settle the case.

Attorneys for the plaintiffs, which include two Vermont dairy farmers, have estimated that about 8,000 farmers will be entitled to a share of the settlement. They have characterized the case as the first step in breaking Dean’s grip on the milk market, restoring competitoin to the marketplace. Dean is the largest milk processor in the country.

The two other defendants in the lawsuit, Dairy Farmers of America, and its marketing arm, Dairy Marketing Services, have refused to settle, and have said the lawsuit is pitting dairy farmer against dairy farmer. Dairy Farmers of America is the largest dairy farmer cooperative in the nation and includes hundreds of Vermont dairy farmers.

About two dozen farmers belonging to the Dairy Farmers of America coop attended an April 15 hearing on the case in Reiss’s court to show their opposition to the lawsuit. The farmers have said a provision of the lawsuit that would require Dean to buy at least 10 percent of its milk from a source other than Dairy Farmers of America would ultimately lead to lower milk prices and could put some of them out of business.

But as Judge Reiss noted in her decision Wednesday, that provision of the lawsuit was dropped in its revised version, clearing the way, in her opinion, for the $30 million settlement to go forward. Reiss noted in her opinion that the requirement to buy milk from sources other than Dairy Farmers of America "has been the sole source of objections to the Dean Settlement."

"We’re pleased with the Court’s decision and believe this is a very good outcome for the farmers represented in this case," said Benjamin Brown of Cohen Milstein Sellers Toll, PLLC, the Washington D.C. law firm bringing the lawsuit. "We are continuing to move the case forward against the remaining defendats, DFA and DMS, and expect to complete factual discovery in the case in the next month."

Attorneys for Dairy Farmers of America were still reviewing Reiss’s decision Thursday morning.

Essentially, Dean settled for what might have been its costs to defend itself in the case. Not bad. And, as things stand, we have learned nothing and nothing has changed.

Most everyone had hoped for more - much more.

Decling World Yields

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http://greedgreengrains.blogspot.com/2011/05/declining-crop-yields.html


Declining crop yields

There are many reasons for high commodity prices. But recent data from FAO shows a pretty rapid slowdown in productivity growth. The price spike in 2008 occurred in a particularly bad year in which yields declined on a worldwide basis for three of the four largest food commodities. In 2009 all four of the majors saw yield declines, something that hasn't happened since 1974. 2010 couldn't have been much better and was probably worse, given how bad things were in the U.S, the world's largest producer and exporter (worldwide data for 2010 isn't available yet).

More at link.

Probably, there are several reasons but, obviously, Monsanto is not going to feed the world.

Corn & Money

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Yesterday USDA's "Crop Progress" report was released: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-05-02-2011.pdf

Above shows the how little corn has been planted. Yesterday, the decision was made to flood thousands of acres of cropland. One might think corn prices might have skyrocketed today - not so.

Weather may be important. Supply and demand may be important. But, the almighty (or not so almighty) dollar seems to reign.

Dairy farmers will certainly face a stiffer grain bill.

Cheese

Today, USDA released its "Dairy Products" report which covers March 2011. American type cheese production was up 0.3 % when compared with March 2010. USDA's "Commercial Disappearance" data came out recently which showed a 12% increase in sales of American type cheese. That is a huge change. Most of the increase came from exports.

Speaking with a cheese broker today, I learned there are hamburger price "war" currently. he felt that should bump up cheese consumption.

Altogether, the situation should provide a healthy price at the CME. But, do the traders really know what is happening in the real world?

New Checkoff Needed?

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While dairy farmers pay into the dairy checkoff, dairy farmers seem to be using less milk on the farm. The USDA data only goes to 2004. Lately according to sources, dairy farmers are cutting milk replacer to save money.

The data shows, however, dairy farmers have been cutting farm milk use at a faster pace than the consumer.

Balancing Act

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Milk leaves the farm and theoretically goes to the highest use, which has historically fluid milk. Eventually, when no other home can be found, the milk goes to a nonfat dry milk plant, which is considered the lowest value.

This process is called balancing. But, there is another aspect. The government stands ready willing and able to buy dairy products at the "support" price of $9.90 per hundredweight or for NFDM $.80 per pound.

A look at the graph above should be all the proof anyone needs that sales to the government is an act for reasons known to the big players. For the most part, the sales to the government correspond with low farm milk price and sales to the government are considered "surplus." Logically, the manufacturers warehouses should be filled to the brim. However, that seems to have not been the case.

Food Costs

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ERS has new data on food inflation: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/CPIFoodAndExpenditures/Data/CPIForecasts.htm

Dairy shows some increase in costs but, not as much as meat. Anyone can practically live on dairy. However, George Orwell noted some time ago in The Road to Wigan Pier, regarding the life of the British working poor:

The basis of their diet, therefore, is white bread and margarine, corned beef, sugared tea and potatoes -- an appalling diet. Would it not be better if they spent more money on wholesome things like oranges and wholemeal bread or if they even, like the writer of the letter to the New Statesman, saved on fuel and ate their carrots ? Yes, it would, but the point is that no ordinary human being is ever going to do such a thing. The ordinary human being would sooner starve than live on brown bread and raw carrots. And the peculiar evil is this, that the less money you have, the less inclined you feel to spend it on wholesome food. A millionaire may enjoy breakfasting off orange juice and Ryvita biscuits; an unemployed man doesn't.… When you are unemployed … you don't want to eat dull wholesome food. You want something a little bit "tasty." There is always some cheaply pleasant to tempt you.

All of which leads to Coke's annual report: http://www.thecoca-colacompany.com/investors/pdfs/form_10K_2010.pdf

A snip can be seen above. Coke had a reduction of 3%, 2008 vs 2009.

then look at: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/MilkProdDi/MilkProdDi-04-27-2011.pdf

On page 6 you will find dairy farms lost 30% in the same 2008 - 2009 period.

Plates

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There is an interesting site which focuses on the tectonic plate which produced the recent earthquakes in New Zealand: http://nzphoto.tripod.com/volcano/PlateMotion.htm


Equally important, is that the Pacific plate produced the massive earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

Japan is enduring rolling blackouts everyday as its electrical generation capacity is reduced from the tsunami and the nuclear disaster. Earlier this week, I spoke with someone who had just returned from Japan. he said Japanese dairy farmers had driven their cows into Tokyo as a protest. he also said it will be at least two months before Japan is able to evaluated with any certainty where things are headed. The Bank of Japan confirmed this in a report out today.

Fonterra has withdrawn all employees from Japan. Some think America will be exporting y more dairy products to Japan soon.

One more thing, the Pacific Plate touches the West coast of the U.S.

Framing the Discussion

In recent days I have heard multiple time the concept of a "competitive" price. What exactly is a competitive price? who knows?

But, first a thought as to why terms like "competitive price" are used.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framing_(social_sciences)

Framing, a term used in media studies, sociology and psychology, refers to the social construction of a social phenomenon by mass media sources or specific political or social movements or organizations. It is an inevitable process of selective influence over the individual's perception of the meanings attributed to words or phrases. A frame defines the packaging of an element of rhetoric in such a way as to encourage certain interpretations and to discourage others.

Framing is so effective because it is a heuristic, or mental shortcut. According to Susan T. Fiske and Shelley E. Taylor, human beings are by nature “cognitive misers”, meaning they prefer to do as little thinking as possible. Frames provide people a quick and easy way to process information. Hence, people will use the previously mentioned mental filters (a series of which is called a schema) to make sense of incoming messages. This gives the sender and framer of the information enormous power to use these schemas to influence how the receivers will interpret the message.[

Naturally, when one hears the term "competitive pricing" regarding farm milk, anyone is likely to think everyone is going to run the price up for my milk. Not likely. Everyone should make a list of all the dirty tricks used to drive down farm milk price and then double the number.

Careful of term which shortcut thinking.

Trucking

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There is a great deal of talk about the wonderful opportunities for the U.S. in dairy trade. Who knows how much will filter to the farm gate?

However, all of this is not as simple as it seems. Fuel costs are rising and one might think since the fuel is denominated in dollars the costs would be higher getting dairy out of the U.S. Well, it seems, having a back haul of some sort for all those containers is a deal sweetener.

But wait, most of the cheese is coming from the upper Midwest, where there are no refrigerated containers. Now there has to be a haul to a port via truck, where the cargo is then loaded to a container.

Needless to say, no one can look at any one set of numbers and grasp the whole financial impact. Every deal is unique.

Predictions

Everybody wants their future told. Go to any meeting on dairy and there will be no shortage of predictions about what the future of dairy prices will be.

However, just how good are the experts? While we may not know how good dairy experts are, no one has done any scientific study, there have been scientists study the accuracy of expert predictions. In the mid-1980s psychologist Philip Tetlock assembled a group of 284 political experts to make nearly 100 predictions each about a variety of possible future events. Twenty years later, he published the results. The experts did not perform any better then minimally sophisticated statistical model.

Other studies have come to the same conclusion. Experts are not very good at predictions, however, few people verify the predictions experts make.

Presently, there are so many balls in the air and any one of them or several of them might drop. Therefore, predictions about future dairy prices are virtually meaningless.