Today, USDA released its "Dairy Products" report which covers March 2011. American type cheese production was up 0.3 % when compared with March 2010. USDA's "Commercial Disappearance" data came out recently which showed a 12% increase in sales of American type cheese. That is a huge change. Most of the increase came from exports.
Speaking with a cheese broker today, I learned there are hamburger price "war" currently. he felt that should bump up cheese consumption.
Altogether, the situation should provide a healthy price at the CME. But, do the traders really know what is happening in the real world?