Tuesday, January 12, 2010


Today, January 12, 2010 USDA released its "Grain Stocks" report: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc-01-12-2010.pdf

For corn the report says:

Corn stored in all positions on December 1, 2009 totaled 10.9 billion bushels, up 9 percent from December 1, 2008. Of the total stocks, 7.45 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 15 percent from a year
earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.49 billion bushels, are down 3 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2009 indicated disappearance is 3.89 billion bushels, compared with 3.64 billion bushels during the same period last year.

There are rumors floating which hold that USDA is counting "unharvested" corn as on farm stocks. So, no sooner was the report out than USDA announced:

Issued Jan. 12, 2009 by the Agricultural Statistics Board of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service. For more information contact Lance Honig at (202) 720-2127 or lance_honig@nass.usda.gov.

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) may release updated acreage, yield, production and stocks estimates for corn and soybeans in the March 10 Crop Production report. Previous estimates included in the Crop Production 2009 Summary released on January 12 were based on a sample of producers growing crops this past year.

When producers were surveyed in late November and early December, there was significant unharvested acreage of corn in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin; and significant unharvested acreage of soybeans in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia. The unharvested area and expected production were included in the totals released on January 12.

NASS will re-contact respondents who previously reported acreage not yet harvested in these states. If the newly collected data justifies any changes, NASS will update the January 12 estimates in the March 10 report, except for South Dakota and North Dakota. Since the inclement weather has persisted in those two states, producers there will be re-interviewed at a later time.

Stocks estimates are also subject to review since unharvested production is included in the estimate of on-farm stocks.

Note the last sentence.

By the way the stock market was down, oil was down and corn was down. Why do they always travel in groups?

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