Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Yogurt



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USDA, today, released their "Dairy Products" report. One item I have been following all year is the production of yogurt. No one ages yogurt. No one makes yogurt without an order. No one would be ordering more yogurt if sales were down.

One can only logically conclude, rumors of the death of dairy sales are, and have been, premature.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

California









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California's Department of Food and agriculture lists: Emergency Hearing – All Classes – November 9, 2009.

Supposedly, the purpose is to raise the price to California dairy farmers. But, wait a minute. CDI, a Capper-Volstead co-op wants more. CDI wants an increase in make allowances.

Can a similar proposal for the federal milk orders be far behind. One can imagine a certain Northeast co-op pleading for a level playing field with California, which can only be realized by increasing the make allowance.

Crops and Weather

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/WWNatSumm/WWNatSumm-11-03-2009.pdf

Corn: Acreage at or beyond the mature stage advanced to 94 percent, 4 points behind last year and 5 points behind the 5-year average. The most significant delay was evident in North Dakota where crop maturity was 34 points, or over 1 month behind normal. Producers had harvested 25 percent of the Nation’s crop by week’s end, 28 points behind last year and 46 points, or 1 month, behind the average. Harvest delays of 3 weeks or more were evident in the 6 largest corn-producing States, with progress in Illinois over 5 weeks behind normal. Overall, 67 percent of the corn crop was reported in good to excellent condition, down 2 points from ratings last week but 3 points better than last year. Conditions in unharvested corn fields throughout the Great Plains, Corn Belt, and Great Lakes continued to deteriorate as reports of unfavorably
high moisture levels and mold were reported.


Monday, November 2, 2009

World Markets?



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Today's CME block Cheddar price is just a hair over $1.50 per pound. For comparison, the Oceania price, as reported by USDA's Dairy Market News last week was an average of $1.66 per pound.

Crops

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-11-02-2009.pdf

What had been predicted as a bumper crop for corn is now looking for life preservers. Today's USDA "Crop Progress" report shows harvest as way behind the average of 2004 - 08.

Only 25% of the corn is harvested in the lead corn states compared with a 71% average. For soy,the report shows 51% harvested versus an average of 87%.

Bankers must be contemplating doubling their medications.

Dean Foods 3rd Qtr

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/dean-foods-company-reports-strong-third-quarter-earnings-68520932.html

Net income for the third quarter totaled $49.7 million, compared with $37.8 million in the prior year's third quarter, an increase of 32%. Solid operating income growth at Fresh Dairy Direct and WhiteWave-Morningstar and lower interest expense offset increases in Corporate and Other expenses to drive 43% growth in adjusted net income for the third quarter to $62.2 million, up from $43.5 million in the third quarter of 2008. Due to lower average debt balances, interest expense in the quarter totaled $59.5 million, compared to $74.7 million in the third quarter of 2008.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Retail





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USDA publishes retail milk prices for selected cities. While not claiming to be precise, the numbers do give a snapshot of what is happening. Above are the numbers for 2008 and the first ten months of 2009.

Note the retail price for Chicago, IL, right next to lots of milk in Wisconsin, compared to the retail price in Miami, Fl.

The above graph shows data for Boston, Ma converted for ease of comparison to hundredweight. Obviously, the retail price is more than double the farm price.

The so-called invisible hand of the “market” seems to have a stranglehold on the dairy farmer’s neck.