Thursday, October 7, 2010

Where Did It Go?



(click on image to enlarge)

Above is a graph covering fluid or beverage milk. We all know what that is. The blow-molded plastic gallon seems to go back to antiquity. There is nothing new, no additional value added.

But, the price of milk in the store seems to go up and up. The Secretary of Agriculture would do some good to have a commission to find what happened to the money in the middle.

The retailers take more because they can. Are they efficient though?

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Fonterra Auction

Today, October 5, 2010 Fonterra held its latest globalDairyTrade (gDT). This was the 29th such event.

Whole and skim milk powders were slightly lower, while butter milk powder and anhydrous milk fat increased. Taking great liberties with the word "market", comments from New Zealand are suggesting this latest indicates the "market" is balanced.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Bankruptcy Filings Up



(click on image to enlarge)

The headline speaks of bankruptcies being up 20%:

http://www.uscourts.gov/News/NewsView/10-08-17/Bankruptcy_Filings_Up_20_Percent_in_June.aspx?CntPageID=1

However, Chapter 12 filings are up 56% YOY. Most of those are likely from dairy.

Sunday, October 3, 2010

EU

The EU is not interested in having milk protest. At the moment a plan is being discussed.

See: http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/10/742&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en

High Level Group makes 7 recommendations for EU dairy sector
The High Level Group on Milk, set up last October in the wake of last year's dairy crisis, has finalised the report on its deliberations, including recommendations to the Commission on seven issues. These include an invitation to come forward with concrete moves to enhance the use of written contracts in the dairy supply chain and to consider proposals to increase the collective bargaining power of dairy producers.

EU Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development Dacian Cioloş stated today: "I welcome the work of the HLG and this report. I will now study it in detail with a view to coming forward with legislative proposals before the end of the year. My main aim is that we consider medium to long term measures which address the lessons learned from last year's crisis aimed at better structuring the sector as a whole."

The recommendations to the Commission from the High Level Group relate to:

*Contractual relations between milk producers and milk processors: Enhancement of formal written contracts, made in advance, to cover deliveries of raw milk (inc. price, volume, timing & duration) – through guidelines or a legislative proposal, maybe made compulsory by the Member State.
*Collective bargaining power of producers: Possible proposal for provision to allow producer organisations constituted by dairy farmers to negotiate jointly their contract terms, including price, with a dairy. Whether permanent or temporary (but sufficiently long), the provision should be subject to review.
*The possible role of interbranch organisations in the dairy sector: Examination of whether any of the current provisions for interprofessional organisations in the fruit & vegetables sector could also be applicable in the dairy sector.
*Transparency in the dairy supply chain: Further elaboration of the European Food Price Monitoring Tool, and a look at the provision of more information (e.g. on volumes of dairy products) by EUROSTAT & national statistics offices.
*Market measures and futures: Consideration of "green box compatible" instruments to reduce income volatility, including possibly facilitating the use of futures markets, in particular via targeted training programmes.
*Marketing standards and origin labelling: Ongoing Commission work on labelling should consider the feasibility of different options for "place of farming" labelling for dairy products and should seek distinct labelling for imitation dairy products.
*Innovation and research: Improvement in communicating existing possibilities for innovation and research within the existing framework of Rural Development and research framework programmes. Stakeholders should define clear research priorities for the dairy sector in order to allow better coordination of national & Community research programmes.
The full 50-page report (with annexes) will be posted shortly at: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets/milk/index_en.htm

Background
Following the difficult market situation for milk last year, the Commissioner established a High Level Expert Group on Milk (HLG) last October with the purpose of discussing mid-term and long-term arrangements for the dairy sector given the expiry of dairy quotas on 1 April 2015 (see IP/09/1420). While respecting the outcome of the Health Check, the HLG was asked to consider regulatory issues which might contribute to stabilizing the market and producers' income and enhance transparency on the market. 10 meetings were held from October 2009 until June 2010. A draft report summarising the outcome of the discussions and with certain recommendations was tabled in May, and this was adopted unanimously today.

Comprising representatives from Member States and chaired by the Director-General for Agriculture & Rural Development Jean-Luc Demarty, the HLG heard oral and written contributions from major European stakeholder groups in the dairy supply chain on the issues. Furthermore, the HLG received valuable contributions from invited academic experts, 3rd country representatives, DG Competition, National Competition Authorities and DG AGRI regarding some specific issues. Finally a major dairy stakeholder Conference was held on 26 March 2010 allowing a larger number of actors in the chain to express their positions.

Saturday, October 2, 2010

Imbalance of Power




(click on images to enlarge)

Nearly everyone has become familiar with the concept of boom and bust. For dairy, there is no boom. The trend is not the result of some evil people plotting the destruction of dairy farmers. For the most part, most dairy farmers have supported the very politicians and policies which has brought dairy farming to near collapse.

Unquestioning belief in "supply and demand" determining price price through a "market" magical discovery prevails.

In fact, we have a price derived system - a top down system.

"Government is the problem" was bought hook, line and sinker in the early 80's. Antitrust resources were reduced on Ronald Reagan's first day in office to one eighth of what they had been the day before.

Supermarkets took off, as can be seen in the above graph. Supermarkets really wear the pants in dairy and dictate terms. Processors take those terms and through the CME give the dairy farmers the dregs.

Time is not really on anyone's side.

Friday, October 1, 2010

May 6, 2010 Flash Crash

Today, October 1, 2010 the SEC and the CFTC released a report on the unusual trading event of may 6, 2010. On May 6, 2010 the DOW stock index fell the largest ever in one day. The DOW plunged 700 points in a matter of minutes. Mostly, the DOW recovered but, theories immediately began to evolve. There are some thoughts for dairy regarding trading vulnerabilities.

The report is available at:http://www.sec.gov/news/studies/2010/marketevents-report.pdf

The report is titled: FINDINGS REGARDING THE MARKET EVENTS OF MAY 6, 2010 and is 104 pages long.

One company trading on the CME caused the event. Waddell & Reed Financial of Overland Park, Kansas was the company which traded a huge volume of emini futures.

So, why should dairy be concerned? The event could have crashed the NY Stock Exchange and there would still be other exchanges in the world. However, the CME Group is virtually it regarding the pricing of commodities, including farm milk. May 6, 2010 was a "liquidity" crisis. If such an uncertainty were to hit the CME Group, the financial world would have no idea of the price and no alternative for pricing commodities. Global system failure are now "hardwired" into the system which prices dairy farm milk.