Saturday, December 11, 2010

Best Dairy State oh Boy Youbetcha

In America the leading policy formulators for dairy ascribe a certain omniscience to the "market." Omniscience is the property of having complete or maximal knowledge.

Well, it would seem that a certain buyer of milk, who makes Cheddar, thinks (is certain) its suppliers can make milk with block Cheddar on the CME at $1.39. Most anyone who cares to know, knows there is a near perfect correlation between CME block prices and dairy farm milk price.

So, if you put it all together, you must conclude Idaho is the best state to have a dairy operation - and that Washington D.C. is the best place to take a nap.


  1. Ten loads of cheese went unsold last friday at the exchange. They will be sitting there monday with some more. The bleeding is not done. Merry Christmas everyone!

  2. Fonterra making money exporting our powder and then making money importing thier MPC's to make cheap cheese!! What a deal!!!

  3. It's amazing how you can focus on CME Cheddar prices and activity, but never ever mention the ethanonl subsidies that are/will destroy the dairy industry. I don't remember you crediting the CME when prices were $1.70 earlier this year, or when they were $2.28 a couple of years ago, but of course that doesn't play into the CME being the reason dairy producers aren't profitable.

    How long have you actually been involved in the dairy industry, it appears not very long, for years, $1.39-$1.40 Block cheese prices were the high of the year, and dairy producers were able to produce milk profitably, now $1.39 block and the CME's activities are the reason dairy producers are suffering... come on talk about facts, that would be much more productive.

    Instead of blaming the CME, why don't you focus on the real problem, Washington using our tax dollars to select winners and losers, in this case, the losers are dairy producers and beef producers, and the winners are the crop farmers and ethanol producers

    Idaho isn't in a vacuum, if they have too much cheese, so do others, have you looked at New Mexico's cheese production of late??? How about cheese inventories (I know you don't believe any numbers that don't fit your argument) Just because cheese doesn't get sold on the exchange doesn't mean it's not affecting what cheese is sold on the exchange.

    One other thing, I've called USDA, you can't make cheese sold on the exchange with MPC's, it's illegal, if you think those who sell on the exchange are using MPC's, we should get FDA and USDA involved, I'm sure you'll say they are on the take too, so I realize you'll quickly dismiss that as unproductive.

  4. Previous poster: You say "Just because cheese doesn't get sold on the exchange doesn't mean it's not affecting what cheese is sold on the exchange" then you come back with the MPC arguement? So what you're saying is MPC cheese IS affecting the exchange? How can it be found out whether the cheese is made with or without? Is there a test for MPC? Does any rule exist that says transactions on the exchange must be actually completed? Its not like an auction where its sold to the highest bidder, loaded up and taken home at the end of the day. Are these guys at the exchange simply trading paper? Does the inventory actually exist? Where are the audit reports from USDA verifying this inventory on a monthly, weekly or daily basis? The CME gets the blame because it is the point of price discovery, albeit a very poor one. I have said on here before with all the industry people inside USDA, FDA, and the ones in Congress that are bought and paid for, we really do have the foxes guarding the hen house. I do agree with you Washington is as much a problem as Chicago, and that ethanol could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. $1.39 cheese is fine if cost of production is 10-12.00 but not when COP is 18+ and that same cheese sells retail for 4X's as much. Supply/demand is not what runs the Dairy industry.

  5. 100# of milk used to always buy 6-7 bu of corn, right now little over 2 bu!!!!!