Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Milk Production

USDA’s July’s “Milk Production” is out:


Production is up 0.1% over July 2008. That number was accomplished with 1.4% fewer cows. Farmers who cannot pay their grain bills are dumping more grain in front of the cows. Pardon my cynicism.

I looked at the first six months of 2007, 2008 and 2009 for three states in the Northeast. New York was up 0.3% in the first six months of 2009, according to NASS, but jumped in the revised data for June of 09 by 3%. New York is also up by 2.6% in July 09 versus July 08.

Pennsylvania is up 0.4% in July 2009 versus July 2008. Vermont is down 4.5%. did “they” the all troublesome “they” move New York? I think not. New York is still between Pennsylvania and Vermont. The data should be similar.

Except for major variations in weather, if the experts are correct, all states should respond similarly to variations in milk price. California, Arizona and New Mexico are all down significantly and New York is UP?

So, the question is how is the data collected? What is the basis for revisions?


  1. There you go, asking questions about things you should be caring or thinking about. Don't you trust the sampling process of NASS? :)

    My question is... how can we find out the actual numbers and not just the sampling and guessing of numbers?

  2. Gee, John, don't you know that high prices always encourage more production? That's dairy economics 101.................... :)