Friday, March 5, 2010

California NFDM

(click on image to enlarge)

Looking over time at the relationship of volume and price for California's NFDM survey, there is none. The correlation in the above graph is -0.072. One (1) would be a perfect correlation and zero (0)no correlation.

There is a lot of NFDM in the California survey, which sets prices for California dairy farmers. California uses the CME prices for everything else but, not for NFDM. One might say, there is virtually no NFDM actually traded at the CME, although the price moves up and down. The total absence of any semblance of a market for NFDM at the CME would be obvious. There have been several years in a row where no NFDM is traded at the CME.

However, this is not to say the CME NFDM and the California NFDM have no relationship. The correlation between California NFDM and the CME NFDM price since the beginning of 2008 is 0.9603 - a near perfect correlation.

The real shame here is that governments, both state and federal go along. As President Wilson said, "If monopoly persists, monopoly will always sit at the helm of government. I do not expect monopoly to restrain itself. If there are men in this country big enough to own the government of the United States, they are going to own it." And there is your problem.


  1. Price for cheese and NFDM drop, farm numbers continue to decline, future prices fall again. How many of you can take another year like the last one, how long before you all realize the ruse these fools play on you? Use the simple power you hold and put your courage to task. Wield the sword of production and let the breastplate of truth protect you all. If you don't demand a fair price, one will not be given.
    It may still not be too late for some, for others like myself the game is about over, and the day of reckoning is near.

  2. Who can we demand a fair price from? Wahington and the Lawmakers? They won't respond. The co-ops? Not happening is it? Maybe it's time to turn to Washington and ask them to buy us out at a fair price since they ruined us? Pray that the Lord will show us a way to recover and the corrupt will be brought to justice.

  3. If the government bought out the farmers I'll bet there would be a rapid turnaround in milk pricing.The NFDM situation is driven by one or two firms that state and federal governments allow to do whatever they want to. Such as the recent California ruling against farmers for false reporting of prices resulting in the shafting of producers once again. What's even more amazing is how openly and unabashedly it is done. Dairy America admitted to wrongdoing and a federal judge not only took them off the hook, but also used a cable car fee case from the middle ages to get USDA off the same hook. Anyone who can't see the correlation between big business and government in this is blind and stupid.