Saturday, June 12, 2010
(click on image to enlarge)
Most thoughts on "dairy trends" are a matter of opinion. The above graph is not so. The above graph takes USDA dairy farm numbers from 2000 - 2009 and then as a matter of math and statistics, I have constructed a linear trend.
By 2024 there will be no more dairy farms - plain and simple.
The scary part is that there was plenty of warning about the financial collapse. There was plenty of warning about Bernie Madoff. There was even warning about the Gulf oil disaster in 2000. No one has to be told the government did nothing in advance of crisis.
As with all the above, the government allowed big corporation to select the riskiest, and therefore most profitable, direction for dairy.
There is no plan "B." There is no backup. Certainly, USDA and most of the experts can fall back on the old "market forces" excuse. However, the reason there has been no realistic examination of the CME is that USDA knows full well "market forces" have no clothes - embarrassing and ugly.
There is a wealth of scientific evidence on what is called "change blindness."
However, USDA and other policy formulators have their eyes closed. We are daydreaming toward tomorrow.