(click on image to enlarge)
There is all kinds of chatter about dairy exports in 2010. The real question is not whether or not exports rose but who really gained?
Obviously, looking at the graph above, the dairy farmers were not the winners. In the above graph, Class III milk price per hundredweight is divided by ten, which represent the normal cheese yield.
To make matters worse, the export prices from the U.S. were higher than world Cheddar prices. Since the Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) "export enhancement" began in March, 2010, and amounted to, according to CWT, 22 % of exports, one might think that the U.S. export price would be lower than world price. After all, why pay into the CWT program for no gain?
Could you provide a link to the CWT export prices you are drawing your data from? Are we comparing apples to apples here? Numbers don't lie, please cite a source. Something smells real fishy with this one.
ReplyDeleteThanks,
DAVE
I did not say I was citing CWT prices. The export price I cited is for "all" cheese exports and is available at: http://dataweb.usitc.gov/
ReplyDeleteWe are comparing cheese prices with cheese prices - neither apples nor fish are involved.
Show Dave the components the NZ farmers are collecting on cheese with no cumbaya deducts!
ReplyDeleteShow Dave your backside. Does Dave think you dream up this blog? And Dave, do you have something that refutes anything John posts?
ReplyDeleteYes, I do. John's export price in comparison to CME Block prices is deceiving. His $/lb export price is for ALL CHEESES. Since CME Cheese is Fresh Only, why not compare Fresh Cheese Export Prices to CME BLocks?
ReplyDeleteThe average Fresh Cheese Export Price for 2010 was $1.63/lb.
http://www.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
With all due respect, Its going to be difficult gaining support here when numbers are intentionally manipulated.
DAVE
Dave,
ReplyDeleteYou have given the data for HTS - 040610: CHEESE, (UNRIPENED OR UNCURED) FRESH (INCLUDING WHEY CHEESE), AND CURD.
The cheese trade at the CME has fairly exact standards. The price you are quoting is a major distortion - you need four more numbers in the HTS category for Cheddar only.
However, the point is, a graph shows a relationship over time. I'll stand by the data I presented
How does your export price (which includes COLBY, BLUE, PROCESSED, AND MIXT) compare to world CHEDDAR prices? It doesn't.
ReplyDeleteWe're beating a dead horse. Careful with your numbers.
I respect and agree with your view on things from a macro level, and that hasn't changed.
DAVE