Saturday, February 27, 2010
Buy the Numbers
(click on image to enlarge)
USDA Economic Research Service supplies the numbers for "commercial disappearances." They also produce the "Livestock, Dairy and Poultry" "Outlook" available at:http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/2010/02Feb/ldpm188.pdf
The dairy table forecast is interesting because the data for supply and demand are right there for 2008 and 2009. I have highlighted the pertinent numbers above - study them carefully.
There has been no shortage of experts quoted in every farm publication proclaiming supply exceeded demand in 2009, hence the low 2009 farm gate prices.
The "official numbers" do not support the conclusion.