Saturday, February 27, 2010

Buy the Numbers

(click on image to enlarge)

USDA Economic Research Service supplies the numbers for "commercial disappearances." They also produce the "Livestock, Dairy and Poultry" "Outlook" available at:

The dairy table forecast is interesting because the data for supply and demand are right there for 2008 and 2009. I have highlighted the pertinent numbers above - study them carefully.

There has been no shortage of experts quoted in every farm publication proclaiming supply exceeded demand in 2009, hence the low 2009 farm gate prices.

The "official numbers" do not support the conclusion.


  1. John--being the whiz with numbers that you are, please find for us the effect of the marvelous CWT program.........maybe I just don't see it..........


    "in this round, combined with CWT’s three previous herd retirements since December 2008, equal a total reduction of milk production capacity of five billion pounds."

    “Coming into 2009, CWT’s economists estimated that we would need to remove between five and six billion pounds of milk, the production of approximately 250,000 cows, through herd retirements,” said Jerry Kozak, President and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, which administers CWT. “We are pleased that the participation in this third herd retirement of 2009 has brought us to our goal of aligning supply with demand, and hastening the recovery of farm-level milk prices that plunged because of the global recession.

  2. First let's discount anything Kozak has to say, and secondly we all know what effect the CWT had on milk pricing don't we? May God show these liars what is in store for those who have no sense of decency toward their fellow man