Saturday, September 18, 2010

Projections & Predictions

(Click on image to enlarge)

Projections and predictions are two different things. However,the two seem to get mixed together most of the time.

Although there is talk of the 2012 Farm Bill, and how any changes in dairy policy will have to wait until then, I say good luck , if that is what you are counting on. Most any bureaucrat and most any politician will look at some variation of the above graph and believe entirely in staying the course. Plenty of milk and the dairy cases are full in the stores - life is good.

But, the East is deficit in milk and the costs of hauling milk to the East, in 2010, is going to be about $2.17 BILLION. Therefore things may not be all that good.

If there is to be public dairy policy, the good of the public needs to be served. I would venture to say that few, if any, have given this any thought. We still hear about dairy farmers getting together. Why? Can everyone benefit from a monolithic, one-size-fits-all, public policy? I think not.

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