Friday, September 11, 2009


USDA regularly publishes “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” (WASDE). The issue for September states regarding milk:

“The milk production forecast is raised for 2009 and 2010 as milk per cow is forecast higher. Lower feed costs and plentiful supplies of alfalfa hay into 2010 are expected to support increased feeding of higher quality rations. Imports for 2009 are raised as fat-based product imports have been stronger than expected; the commercial export forecast for 2009 is raised as cheese shipments have been firm. Net removals are adjusted to reflect lower expected sales to CCC in 2009. Class III and IV price forecasts are reduced for 2009 due to weaker butter and whey prices. Cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are unchanged. The Class III price forecast for 2010 is unchanged; the Class IV price is reduced due to lower butter and NDM prices. The all milk price is forecast at $12.05 to $12.25 per cwt for 2009 and $14.55 to $15.55 for 2010.”

For January 2007:

“Milk price forecasts are reduced from last month as increased nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are offset by reduced cheese and butter prices. Demand for NDM and whey for both domestic ingredient use and international sales continues to support relatively strong prices. In the absence of other international supply sources, U.S. prices are expected to remain high. Cheese prices are reduced slightly and butter prices are reduced more as supplies are expected to remain ample in the face of robust demand for NDM. Class price forecasts are also adjusted to reflect the recently announced interim manufacturing (make) allowances for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey that will take effect February 1. The increase in make allowances results in lower Class prices. The all milk price forecast for 2007 is reduced to $13.60 - $14.40.”

The actual “all milk” price for 2007 was $19.13

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