Saturday, April 24, 2010

Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook from ERS

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/2010/04Apr/LDPM190.pdf

The Nation’s dairy herd continues to contract on a year-over-year basis. However, milk per cow continues to rise incrementally. The April Milk Production report indicated that milk per cow was 51 pounds (lbs) higher in March compared with a year ago. Moderating feed prices for 2009/10 and the prospect of continued moderate feed prices into the next crop year have provided an incentive to increase output. However, lower milk prices have kept the milk-feed profitability ratio below 2.5. A milk-feed price ratio above 2.5 is considered necessary to begin any expansion. Although the U.S. dairy herd continues to decline, the rate of decline appears to be moderating. The March Livestock Slaughter report showed 223,000 dairy cows laughtered under Federal inspection in February, the second lowest total since last May. Meanwhile, producers added 3,000 cows in both January and February. For 2010, the U.S. dairy herd is expected to average 9,065,000 cows, a 1.5 percent decline from 2009, but somewhat higher than recent USDA estimates. Output per cow is projected at 20,950 lbs resulting in a forecast 189.9 billion lbs of milk in 2010.


The fact is, milk production is subject to revision and the milk per cow and number of cows is outright fiction.

8 comments:

  1. What do you see as being real numbers? I know I can't affor to feed like I use to therby I get less milk. WIth the cull price here what it is I am also down on numbers can't afford to care for that three titer when she will bring good money for the meat. JR

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  2. numbers that is all i see anymore, to much milk to many cows. soon that will be nothing when we are all gone and getting most of our milk and food from over seas. i am going to hate and see us being a third world country. It is coming that you for corparate greed. how much longer are we to hang by the noose. i am getting so tired. opened up milk check 12.78 a hundred was our first milk. what is the use to keep on going. Washington has not helped. they set in their fancy 2nd homes while stuffing they face with food. Our president does not get it either. i cannot take it anymore. Cannto sell out cows are not worth anything either. oh may your fancy ones will still bring the price, but h-- how many of us can afford to buy them. Farming use to be a good life raise a family, be your own boss. now not sure what is good about it. I am so bitter.

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  3. When will the truth come out as far as milk and numbers? It has to catch up eventually right?

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  4. I think most farmers inflate #'s when NASS calls to make themselves feel good! I don't give them #'s anymore because they are just fiction and are used against us.

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  5. There isn't any use anymore. Not when just down the road a guy adds 4,000 cows and gets cheap, affordable, and illegal labor to milk these cows and everyone looks the other way. We need Arizona Governor Jan Brewer for President. Won't be a milk surplus then.

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  6. You might be surprised what he is actually paying his workers and the taxes he with-holds!

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  7. Doesn't matter what he is paying his workers. They are illegal. What part of that doesn't anyone understand??? Why is it OK to hire illegals?????

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  8. I know I'm way behind as due to time constraints I only read this blog about once a week now. But we shouldn't blame the illegals for something that's our fault. Don't get me wrong I think folks should sign the book as they come in but we have let ourselves be mistreated for so long we think we can do nothing about it - not true. We have the cows, they have nothing.... It's as simple as that. There's not much else to say, if we weren't beast of muddy brains ourselves we would have all we need. But alas it will not be, as infighting and finger pointing at each other holds us all back.
    Your neighbor with 10,000 cows is your ally not enemy, the Mexican caring for someone's cows is closer to you than you care to admit and is much more your friend than the marketers that control you.

    Meanwhile butter stocks continue to shrink, which normally means there is a shortage of milk-fat, while they say cheese stocks grow... I think something else is rotten is reportsville, and it's keeping milk prices artificially low at least for the time being. Not that we'll ever take our skirts off and do anything about it.

    They been feeding you dog-shit! Telling you it's Cream of Wheat.
    Jimmy Hoffa

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