Sunday, July 18, 2010

Good News - Maybe

(click on image to enlarge)

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regularly publishes its "Commitment of Traders" (COT) report.

Above shows the most recent data for Class III milk futures. Notice the headings. Non - commercial means, for the most part, speculators. Now notice the "shorts" are running away. This likely means prices are going to improve.

Next, notice the total number of traders. No sane person would call this a real market. However, most of the experts are recommending "risk management" which means beware once again of a thin, thin market.

1 comment:

  1. The rule in commodity trading is to always be on the side of the commercials longterm because they set up new trends. Technical breakouts will follow after commercials take the lead. Small speculators such as farmers always lose to the commercials in this game most of the time. Too bad the Coops pushing these instruments of wealth destruction don't inform farmers of this rule. They only point out the lucky ones that did make money in the magazines and not the multitude of losers.