Friday, November 13, 2009


Well, the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) has been out for several days. In case there are some not sufficiently depressed this will make good reading. Be sure to look at the tables covering milk (33 & 34).

The milk production forecasts are raised for 2009 and 2010 as milk per cow is forecast higher and the rate of decline in cow inventories is slowed. Improved milk prices are expected to more than outweigh higher feed costs and slow the pace of liquidation. Improving global demand and concerns about world supplies of dairy products have pushed international dairy prices higher and are expected to result in higher U.S. dairy exports during the remainder of this year and into 2010. Import forecasts are lowered for 2009. Fat-basis ending stocks are forecast higher for 2009, but 2010 stocks are forecast lower on both a fat and skim-solids basis as supplies tighten. Improving domestic and export demand and lower year-to-year milk production is expected to lead to higher prices for U.S. cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey. Class III and IV price forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are raised from last month. The all milk price is forecast at $12.60 to $12.70 per cwt for 2009 and $16.05 to $16.95 for 2010.

The tables defy comprehension.


  1. USDA was forecasting a bumper crop of corn and beans. quality issues abound across much of the corn belt. i saw an article the other day about the dire straits the world foood supply is facing and it said we need more research to resurect the problem. How about the hard working american farmer being paid a fair price for their product? no research needed, just a fairly produced product at an economical price for the farmer.
    Robert Lieb

  2. why is this depressing, lower inventories and strengthening demand are leading to higher prices. Isn't this a good thing?

  3. Robert is exacly right; a fair price for the producer is needed not only to sustain the farmer but also the country. Whenever we have a good crop, good year, higher than expected production or somehow manage to do a better job than the girly shoe experts forecast we are rewarded with low prices. The fluctuation of prices at the market also defies all logic.
    In the case of dairy, the market has created such a shortage of income, for most all, that many are reduced to povery and insolvency. Yet the experts still think production will continue to increase, this is folly on their part, as at these prices the industry will collapse and the country may be reduced to the point of starvation in a land of plenty.
    History has seen it before, beef cattle shot and left to rot because there was no market for the meat - while people went hungry in the streets.
    We are well on our way there again and for no good reason. As we lose our savings due to this misguided system we have allowed ourselves into, decades perhaps even centuries worth of labor and production in the form of equity and money will be lost - and to what end? There is no need for this, we have more people in this country and the world than a year ago, our normal production increases have ceased or even decreased, yet the march to reduce us to the level of a farmer in India continues as we embrace this "free trade" and or "world trade" system. Please understand, we do not need to export any of our dairy, as exports are in my opinion only needed to offset the imports. If we imported nothing we would have most all the market we needed. About the only purpose of "free world trade" is to obtain raw materials at the lowest possible cost. You see this hurts not only us but the country... I must end here, give it some thought.
    Money Pit Acres

  4. Thsi report clearly shows the fallicy of having the Govt manage a GMP/quota type system. They can even recopncile there own numbers now how will they fairly predict anything?

    Troy L