Thursday, August 12, 2010
(click on images to enlarge)
Note: Search trends graph by Google & import/export graphs by USITC
On August 2, 2010 I posted a graph showing the connection of falling farm milk price and the "Great" recession.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) calculates the beginning and end of recessions. Recessions are generally marked by two quarters of falling Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Take a look at the two graphs on exports and imports and then contemplate this formula: GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports). We have once again posted a very negative trade balance - not a good sign.
As can be seen by the Google graph of search trends those searching Google for information on double dip recession is growing rapidly.
There is a total lack of confidence in the economic world as to which way the economies of the world are headed.
With prices heading up on the CME, one might hope for the best but, it would be good to exercise extreme caution.