Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Fonterra's Auction

Today, August 3, 2010 Fonterra held another internet auction for three dairy products. Prices fell -8.3% from the last auction.

The auction sells, Anhydrous Milkfat (AMF), Skim Milk Powder (SMP) and Whole Milk Powder (WMP).

Translating to U.S.equivalent in pounds:

$1.57/lb for 80% bf American butter adjusted from AMF.
$1.256/lb for SMP.
$1.349 for WMP.

What does this mean - who knows? I am constantly having to tell people my crystal ball broke. There is some comfort from a Federal Reserve blog on predictions. See:http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2010/08/what-makes-forecasting-tough.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2FRUQt+%28macroblog%29

Here's a quote:

"How do economists fare when it comes to real forecasting, to predicting [gross domestic product] GDP growth and inflation one year out? About as good as a coin toss, according to Bryan's research. Less than half the economists did better than the naive forecast, which is based on no understanding of the economy and merely assumes next year's outcome will be the same as this year's. It's what you'd expect if the results were purely random."

People seem to desperately want predictions, nevertheless, and pay "experts" good money to make useless predictions.

I think the point is - dairy farmers should be paid enough for their milk to make it through good times and bad. That is presently not the case.

No comments:

Post a Comment